Examination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Top in January 1973

On  01/04/22 the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made new all-time highs.  This  move invalidated a  long-term Fibonacci time cycle that targeted an important DJI turn sometime in the year 2021.  This  time cycle was first illustrated in the 08/22/20 blog “Forecast- Bull Market Termination Date – 2021”.  This  time  cycle spanned an eighty-nine-year period connecting the DJI turns made in the years 1932, 1966, 1987, and 2000. For example, 1987 was 34 – years – a Fibonacci sequence number, from 2021.  2000 was 21 – years –  a  Fibonacci sequence number, from 2021.  Time  cycles  based a Fibonacci sequence numbers have no leeway. It’s either a  Fibonacci sequence number or something else. 1987 to 2022 is  35 – years  not a Fibonacci sequence number.

Early 2022 could still be an important turning point. The 12/30/21 blog “Market Turns  Near the Turn of a  New Year”  illustrated  three  SPX dynamic turns within a week of a new year.  There’s another dynamic market turn that happened in early 1973.

The daily DJI and SPX chart courtesy of Trading View compares  the DJI 1973 peak with current SPX action.

In January 1973, the DJI made an all-time high and then over the next two years  declined 46%.  However, the DJI top was made  on the eighth trading  day of 1973 which is  a bit of a stretch to say the top came at the turn of the year. 

If either the SPX or DJI  make a bull market  top on the eighth trading day of 2022 it targets 01/12/22 as  the turn date. 

If two of the three main US stock indices  are  making  new highs  after 01/14/22 ,it would then be even more of a stretch to consider it a turn near the turn of the year. 

SPX major Fibonacci resistance is in the 4840 to 4890 zone.  If the SPX can reach this zone anytime until 01/14/22, a major bull market top could be made.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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