November is statistically the most bullish month for US stocks. This bullish season can last at least until the end of the year and sometimes continue into late April. My 10/28/20 post “Door Open for Lower Stocks” discussed the reasons why the S&P 500 (SPX) could continue to decline. On 10/30/20 the SPX did make a new low and a bottom could be in place, if not any further decline could be small.
The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates where the next low could occur.
In Elliott Wave Theory, Zigzag corrections (A – B – C ) wave “A” is usually equal to wave “C”. In this case wave “A” is the 9/2/20 to 9/24/20 decline. If wave “C” is under construction, the decline from SPX 3549.90 could terminate near 3171. This is the value area discussed in my 10/28/20 post and corresponds to chart support just below the SPX 9/24/20 bottom.
Another factor is the SPX 200 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA), most stock fund managers measure their performance vs. the SPX. While the SPX is trading above the 200 – day SMA it is considered important support. Note that in mid-June and early July the SPX bottomed at and just below the line. If the decline continues the line could again attract buying and provide support.
Both lines of the SPX daily Stochastic have reached the oversold zone and implies either a bottom could be in place, if not within the next one or two trading days.
The US Presidential election is 11/03/20 and could trigger a big move up or down. If the value area holds it could be the start of a big move up continuing into late December 2020.
Another post will be issued before the US election.
2 thoughts on “The Bullish Season”
Thanks for the good news about November, Mark. That is great to hear!
Thanks for the comment. Remember when forecasting markets we deal with probabilities not certainties.