The release of the monthly U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report at 8:30 AM – EDT on 01/09/26 triggered a rally in U.S stock Futures. When the cash S&P 500 session began there was a five – minute rally followed by a 30 – minute decline. After that drop the S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time high. Normally when the U.S. stock Futures rally after release of the Non – Farm payroll data there’s rapid follow through at the S&P 500 open – 9:30 AM -EDT. The initial bearish S&P 500 reaction hints that the U.S. stock bull market is losing strength.
The daily S&P 500 ($SPX) chart courtesy of StockCharts.com updates the recent external momentum.
The 01/08/26 blog “Upside Target Reached – 01/08/26” illustrated that the S&P 500 could be forming an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle since the 11/21/252 bottom. The blog also noted that the release of the monthly U.S. Non – Farm Payroll report on 01/09/26 could trigger a rally above the rising trendline connecting the two peaks made in December 2025.
$SPX failed to break above the trendline and peaked at 6,978.36 within leeway of major Fibonacci resistance at 6,958.48.
Daily Slow Stochastic has a bearish divergence and a bearish line cross.
Daily RSI has a bearish divergence vs. the October 2025 peak.
The next chart illustrates the $SPX – Cumulative Advanced/Decline line.
There’s a bearish internal momentum divergence vs. the late December 2025 peak.
However, the internal readings for the broader NYSE – Cumulative Advance/Decline line tells a different story.
The new high in this indicator implies near-term bullishness.
The mixed internal momentum readings make a short-term forecast more difficult.
Important S&P 500 levels to watch next week are as follows.
A move above 7,069.84 invalidates the presumed Ending Diagonal Triangle wave count and opens the door for more upside action.
A move below the 01/08/26 bottom at 6,899.33 is a bearish caution signal.
A move below the 01/02/26 bottom at 6,824.31 could be the prelude to a multi-month decline.
Four Dimension Trading 