Elliott Wave Analysis of U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yields – 12/19/25

Long- Term U.S. Treasury yields could soon be thrusting higher.

The daily CBOE 30 – year Treasury Bond yield chart (TYX) courtesy of Trading View illustrates its action since July 2023.

 TYX soon could be completing an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle underway since the October 2023 peak.  These structures are net sideways corrective patterns of the main trend.  They are composed of five sub waves each of which further subdivide into three waves or a combination of three waves.   After completion of a Horizontal Triangle there’s usually a thrust in the direction of the main trend which in this case is up.

From a proportional aspect the ideal scenario would be if TYX had a small decline in the next one or two weeks to form Intermediate wave (E) completing the Horizontal Triangle.

Sometimes waves “D” and “E” are proportionally much smaller than the prior three sub waves. 

Please note the red down arrow at the 11/20/25 peak. It’s possible this point is Intermediate wave (D) and the subsequent drop into the 11/28/25 bottom is wave (E).  If so, the Horizontal Triangle could be complete and the current rise since then is the early part of a rally that could continue for months.  A decisive move above the upper trendline could be the first clue to a more sustained rally. 

Daily momentum oscillators support the theory that a short-term decline could be underway. Stochastic had a bearish line cross in the over bought zone.  RSI has crossed below its moving average line.  So far, there is no signal from MACD lines.

A multi month rise in long-term U.S. yields/rates could trigger a multi month decline in U.S. stocks.

The FOMC can only control short-term rates, they have no control over long – term rates.  A significant rise in long-term rates makes auto and housing loans more expensive.  Reduced demand for autos and homes will probably have an adverse effect on the U.S. economy.