The 10/25/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector” noted that the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) had been a factor in the surge up of U.S. stocks. On 10/29/25 both SOX and the S&P 500 (SPX) made post April 2025 rally highs. In the subsequent decline SOX was weaker than SPX, declining 16% vs. SPX 5% drop.
The weekly SOX chart courtesy of Trading View updates its long-term action.
Most of the time stocks and stock indices will make significant peaks with at least one RSI bearish divergence. Please note the bearish RSI divergences that occurred at the late 2021 and mid 2024 SOX peaks. The weekly SOX – RSI reading in late October was a maximum, implying at least one more price rally high.
The Elliott wave count from the April 2025 bottom suggests that SOX could be in the fifth wave up to possibly a new high.
The 11/09/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two” noted.
“The RSI top made in the last week of October 2025 indicates that SOX may have made a penultimate peak, and that the final peak could be made with an RSI bearish divergence.”
“Please note that the SOX peak made in early 2022 came approximately six weeks after the RSI peak in November. If the current SOX follows the same path the ultimate peak could be reached in early December 2025”.
SOX is on track to make what could be an ultimate peak in early December 2025.
The recent relative weakness of SOX to SPX is another sign that the stock buying mania since April 2025 could soon terminate.
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