The 10/06/25 blog “Rising VIX and Rising Stocks” noted “The ideal condition for a major U.S. stock peak would be a higher VIX bottom and only one of the three main U.S. stock indices: SPX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite making a new all-time high”.
That was the condition on 10/10/25 when the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made a solo new all-time high with a higher VIX bottom. The result was a micro crash.
The daily VIX and S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View updates this important sentiment indicator and SPX.
Since the micro crash on 10/10/25 the persistent U.S. stock market bulls have kept SPX above its 10/10/25 bottom. The VIX is still rising but now the SPX has a series of rising bottoms. A case could be made that this is a bullish indicator. The rising VIX implies more U.S. stock market bearish sentiment, yet the SPX has so far failed to break below its 10/10/25 bottom.
We are still in October which is notorious for significant U.S. stock market bottoms.
If the SPX breaks below the 10/10/25 bottom watch the VIX level. If the VIX reaches near the 60.00 level that occurred at the 04/07/25 SPX low, a significant U.S stock market bottom could be formed.
Four Dimension Trading 