Since early 2022 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have roughly traded together. Perhaps the BTCUSD peak in August 2025 is heralding a bear market for both indices.
The weekly BTCUSD and SPX chart illustrates their relationship since late 2021.
On 11/10/21 BTCUSD made a significant peak. On 01/04/22 SPX made an important peak 56 – calendar days after BTCUSD. Subsequently they trended down until late 2022. SPX bottom and rally in October 2022 was a bullish divergence signal for BTCUSD.
The next important BTCUSD peak occurred on 01/20/25, SPX peaked 30 – calendar days later. Both traded down and bottomed out in the same week.
The most recent BTCUSD peak was on 08/14/25. SPX all-time high on 09/12/25 was 29 – calendar days after the BTCUSD top, near the time range of the prior two divergent peaks.
The bullish speculation pushing both markets higher could be waning.
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