Potentially Very Bearish Elliott Wave Count – 05/23/25

A very sharp S&P 500 (SPX) decline could occur during the week of 05/27/25 to 05/30/25.

The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View zooms in on the intraday Elliott wave count.

It’s possible that the SPX move down from the 05/19/25 peak is an Elliott wave series of “one’s” and “two’s” down.  These structures are usually the prelude to very dynamic action.

In non-Elliott terms this is a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Please note that the presumed Minuette wave ( ii ) overlaps into the territory of Minute wave [ i ]. This overlap is common in series of “one’s” and “twos”.

Alternatively, the move down from the 05/19/25 peak could be an Elliott wave – Leading Diagonal Triangle.  If this wave count is in effect, it implies a short drop down to the SPX 5,740 to 5,720 area on 05/27/25 followed by a counter trend rally of 05/19/25 to 05/27/25 decline.  If this scenario develops it will be examined in a subsequent blog.

The daily SPX chart illustrates what could happen if the more bearish scenario is in effect.

Note the “air” gap created by the powerful 05/12/25 rally.  There’s probably discussion among market Technical analyst’s about filling this gap.  What about another scenario?  Jumping over the gap.   

The SPX – 200 – day Simple Moving Average could be formidable support requiring a powerful move down to breakthrough.  If so, the SPX could have a downside gap below all or part of the upside gap. 

SPX could reach the low 5,400 zone in just a few trading days.