The 04/19/25 blog “Near-Term Gold Shorting Opportunity- 04/17/25” illustrated a potential STRAT – shorting set up for Gold and noted “If next week Gold exceeds 3,371.90 and does not go below 3,208.70 the sell strategy is invalidated.”
Subsequently Gold did move above 3,371.90 and failed to drop below 3,208.70. A major reason for the continuing Gold bull market is illustrated in the weekly Gold – Commitment of Traders (COT) chart courtesy of Barchart.com.
Each week the Commitment of Traders (COT) report tracks the net contract positions for various Futures. There are three main groups, Small Speculators, Large Speculators and Commercials. The Commercials are the group to follow because they have the most knowledge of the Futures they’re trading.
Gold Commercials are almost always net short because the need to hedge against potential Gold price declines.
As Gold moves higher, the Commercials continue to reduce their hedging! This is powerful evidence that the Gold bull market could extend for at least several weeks.
The weekly Gold and Silver – Continuous Futures contract chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates a potential STRAT method set up for next week.
Next week if Gold and or Silver fail to exceed their highs of the week of 04/21/25 to 04/25/25 and move below the lows of that week it’s a bearish signal.
If a bearish signal occurs the decline could be brief, perhaps only one week.
Of the two metals Gold continues to dominate the upside action. A major peak for both metals probably won’t be made until there have been several weeks of Gold Commercials increasing their hedges.
Watch the Gold – weekly Commitment of Traders Report.
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