This site’s prior blog noted.
“Anything can happen in the markets, and we are always testing our hypothesis. The first test comes in the week of 03/10/25 to 03/14/25. If the SPX moves back below its 200 – day SMA and it’s 03/07/25 bottom, there’s a high probability of more downside action”.
The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened.
On 03/07/25 SPX moved above its 200- Simple Moving Average (SMA), this lasted one day and has continued trending down.
Daily RSI is now marginally in the oversold zone which begins at 30.00 and could go deeper into the oversold zone. MACD has no bullish divergences implying more downside action.
The SPX could soon reach the August 2024 mini – crash bottom. There are two Fibonacci coordinates in this area. The first is a Fibonacci .50 retracement of the October 2023 to February 2025 rally. The second is a 100% retracement of the August 2024 to February 2025 rally, the Fibonacci equality ratio 1/1.
The weekly SPX chart shows a third Fibonacci coordinate.
The SPX – August 2024 mini – crash bottom is very close to a Fibonacci .382 retracement of the October 2022 to February 2025 rally.
Weekly RSI and MACD readings imply lower SPX prices. Time zone for a potential bottom is the first week of April 2025.
Four Dimension Trading 