The 09/06/24 blog “U.S. Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24” had these comments.
“The other factor that could contribute to TYX trending lower is the U.S. FOMC interest rate decision on 09/18/24. It’s widely expected that they will cut short-term interest rates by at least .25 basis points, perhaps more. This could be a classic case of “buy the rumor sell the news”.
There’s an inverse relationship between yield/rates and bond prices. As bonds rise, yield/rates fall. In this case as TYX declines the U.S. 30 – year Treasury bond prices rise.
It’s possible that U.S. 30 – year Treasury bonds could rally into an important top on or just before 09/18/24.”
The daily CBOE 30 Year U.S. Treasury Yield chart (TYX) shows what happened.
On 01/07/25 TYX decisively moved above important resistance at 4.846 the 04/25/24 peak and could now be making a run at the very important high of 5.152 made 10/23/23.
Daily Stochastic has flattened out in the overbought zone. It could stay in that range for a few more weeks. RSI has reached marginally into overbought zone it could go higher, and there’s the possibility of TYX rising with bearish RSI divergences.
MACD only has a small decline in the Histogram section.
There’s a good chance TYX could still be able to rally in the coming weeks.
The big question, could there be a decisive break above the October 2023 peak?
We may have an answer in a few weeks. A decisive move above the TYX 10/23/23 high could mean rising long – term U.S. interest rates well into 2025.
Most of the investment community is focused on the potential of two short -term rate cuts in 2025. The big surprise of the year could be persistently rising long – term rates.
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