The 12/15/24 blog “Gold Downside Forecast – December 2024” noted Gold Continuous Futures could reach 2,500 to 2,450 in late December 2024. Price subsequently declined, then rallied. Elliott wave analysis and the Ichimoku Cloud indicator provide clues to what may happen in the coming weeks.
The daily Continuous Gold Futures (GC1!) courtesy of Trading View illustrates the Elliott wave count from late October 2024.
The move down from 10/30/24 to 11/14/24 has the look of an Elliott – Impulse wave. If so it implies the first phase of a larger developing bear trend.
The subsequent rally has the look of an Elliott wave Single Zigzag corrective pattern. Note that the retracement of the prior decline was deep, greater than 80%.
The next gold drop 12/12/24 to 12/19/24 again had the look of an Impulse wave.
The next rally again has the look of a Single Zigzag. Please note that the retracement of the prior decline this time was only about 50%. Decreasing retracement depth is typical in developing trends, in this case down.
The daily Ichimoku Cloud indicator could be providing a valuable clue to near – term action.
On 01/02/25 and 01/03/25 price broke above the upper cloud border. However, after the 01/03/25 upside break out price trended down then broke below the lower cloud border. It’s possible the moves above the upper border on 01/02/25 and 01/03/25 were fake break outs similar to what occurred on 12/11/24 and 12/12/24.
Watch the daily Ichimoku Cloud on 01/06/25. A continuation of the down move supports the theory of a larger developing bear phase.
If the bear phase continues Gold could make a significant bottom in the 2,500 to 2,450 sometime in February 2025.
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