On 10/31/24 both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced sharp declines; the drop could be heralding a bear market.
The weekly BTCUSD chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its long-term momentum.
During the last week of October 2024 BTCUSD may have completed a double top vs. its March 2024 peak. Because the second top was marginally lower there’s no bearish momentum divergence. However, the October top does have a bearish RSI divergence vs. its May 2024 top.
So far no MACD bearish divergence.
The weekly SPX chart shows its long-term momentum.
RSI has a significant bearish divergence vs. the July 2024 reading which was in the overbought zone. Also, RSI has crossed below its weekly moving average line.
MACD has a bearish divergence vs. its July 2024 reading and is close to a bearish lines cross.
The next weekly chart illustrates how both markets have been trending since their major bottoms made in 2020.
The most fascinating aspect is that in 2021 BTCUSD made a seven – month double top. So far in 2024 another seven – month double top may be complete. Also note that in 2021 while BTCUSD was in a trading range the SPX moved marginally higher. The same phenomenon occurred in 2024.
BTCUSD made a major bottom in the week of 03/09/20 and rallied to the second double top in the week of 11/08/21.
SPX made a major bottom in the week of 03/23/20 and rallied into the week of 01/03/22.
BTCUSD was in a decline from the week of 11/18/21 to the week of 11/21/22.
SPX was in decline from the week of 01/03/22 to the week of 10/10/22.
So far BTCUSD has rallied from the week of 11/21/22 to the week of 10/28/24.
The SPX rallied from the week of 10/10/22 to the week of 10/14/24.
Both markets could now be in the early stage of declines into at least the first quarter of 2025.
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