The Russell 2000 (RUT) Elliott wave count from 03/28/24 to 04/24/24 implies more downside action.
The one – hour RUT chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s been happening.
The RUT decline from 03/28/24 to 04/19/24 was an extended Elliott Impulse wave. The subsequent rally was a three – wave correction topping almost exactly at a Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 03/28/24 to 04/19/24 decline. Note the hourly RSI reached the boundary of the overbought zone and was its highest level since the 03/28/24 peak.
Within the 03/28/24 to 04/19/24 decline Minute wave “v” is .618 of Minute wave “i” which is a common Fibonacci relationship between waves “one” and “five”.
Minute wave “iii” is the longest and also has a clear five – wave subdivision.
If the wave count is correct it implies a decline down to at least the 04/19/24 bottom. More likely is a move below the 04/19/24 bottom, possibly to the 1,760 area.
Fibonacci time analysis targets a turn on either 05/02/24 or 05/03/24. The next FOMC interest rate announcement is 05/01/24.
Traders are 100% short non – leveraged RUT funds from the 04/01/24 open. Continue holding short.
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