Fibonacci price and time calculations indicate the S&P 500 (SPX) could make an important bottom in the first week of May 2024.
The first daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the Fibonacci price calculations.
The primary Fibonacci coordinate is a .50 retracement of the October 2022 to March 2024 bull market. The exact level is 4,684.32.
The second coordinate is the 01/05/24 correction bottom at 4,682.11. This is the Fibonacci ratio of 1/1, a 100% retracement of the January to March rally.
The third coordinate is derived from the 10.9% July to October 2023 decline. Subtracting 10.9% from the SPX 03/28/24 peak at 5,264.85 targets 4,690.99.
All three coordinates are very close which usually indicates strong support.
There’s another potential support area and that’s the Volume Profile – Point of Control (POC) which was illustrated in the 04/17/24 blog “S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Support Zones” . For the SPX the POC is in the area of 4,750.00.
The July to October 2023 decline was 503.29 points. Subtracting 503.29 from the 03/28/24 peak at 5,264.85 targets 4,761.56 close to the Volume Profile POC.
Sometimes if there’s a break of POC, price goes to the nearest important Fibonacci area. In this case it’s near the 01/05/24 bottom.
The broad zone for a potential SPX bottom is 4,780 to 4,670.
The next daily SPX chart shows the Fibonacci time calculation.
The July to October 2023 decline was 65 trading days (TD). 65 multiplied by the Fibonacci .382 ratio is 24.83 days, adding 25 TD to the SPX 03/28/24 peak targets 05/03/24.
The next FOMC interest rate announcement is 05/01/24.
The broad time zone is 05/01/24 to 05/03/24.
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