The 12/28/23 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 12/28/23” noted.
“An intermediate bottom for 30 – year U.S. Treasury Yields could be in place”.
A bottom for the 30- year U.S Treasury Yield (TYX) was in place and the subsequent rally appears to be complete. The next wave down could mark a very significant bottom.
The weekly TYX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action.
The TYX bull market from March 2020 to October 2023 developed in a textbook Elliott wave Impulse pattern. The decline from the October 2023 top could be an Elliott wave – Single Zigzag.
A Fibonacci .382 retracement of the March 2020 to October 2023 is at TYX 3.52. Note this is just below the price cluster of the Intermediate wave (4) Horizontal Triangle. The combination of price cluster and Fibonacci retracement is a logical area for an important bottom to develop.
The weekly Stochastic has bearish lines cross implies lower prices in the coming weeks.
The daily TYX chart zooms in on the shorter-term view.
The TYX October to December decline – presumed Intermediate wave (A) was 1.209 points, multiplied by the Fibonacci ratio of .618 equals .747 points. The top of the presumed Intermediate wave (B) was 4.425 minus .747 targets TYX 3.678 for a potential bottom.
The area of TYX 3.52 to 3.678 is the broad zone for what could be a significant bottom.
This price target zone could be reached in the next two to four weeks.
Four Dimension Trading 