U.S. Interest Rates Ready to Thrust Higher?

Amazingly clear Elliott wave patterns indicate U.S. long-term rates/yields could soon make new highs.

The 09/02/23 blog “U.S. Interest Rates Could Soon Make New 2023 Highs” illustrated the daily the CBOE 30- year Treasury Yield chart (TYX) courtesy of Trading View.   

Subsequent action supports the theory of long – term U.S. interest rates moving higher.

The daily TYX chart updates its movements.

The most important point on the chart is the 08/21/23 peak at 4.474 which is labeled Minor wave “1”.  The 09/02/23 blog noted this top could also be labeled Intermediate wave (5).  If this alternate count is correct it implies a TYX  multi- month decline.  A move above 4.474 implies Minor wave “3” is developing.  If so, 30 – year U.S. Treasury rates  could  reach the 5% area before the end of September 2023.     

The hourly TYX chart focuses on the intraday view.

The decline from 08/21/23 to 08/31/23 appears to be an Elliott three – wave corrective pattern.  The subsequent rally looks like a five – wave impulse pattern.  The next drop labeled as Minute wave “ii” – boxed retraced just beyond a Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 08/31/23 to 09/06/23 rally. 

If the decline is complete the next rally could be Minute wave “iii” of Minor wave “3”.  Third of a third waves are usually the most dynamic Elliott wave configuration.  In this case it implies a rapid and powerful move up.

Within the last few weeks there’s been a rough inverse relationship between TYX and U.S. stocks.  On days where TYX has strong moves up, U.S. stock have moved down.  

Watch TYX 4.474.