September is seasonally the most bearish month for stocks. The 08/31/23 bog “It’s About Time” noted,
“Today 08/31/23 there’s a Full moon. The U.S. monthly payroll report is due at 8:30 AM – EDT – 09/01/23. Labor day is 09/04/23. Daily SPX – Stochastic is in the overbought zone. U.S. Stocks may have made an important top on 08/31/23. If not, a top could occur in the next two trading days.”
The S&P 500 (SPX) made a new post 08/18/23 rally high within the first four – minutes of trading on 09/01/23. Since then, it’s been trending down. So far the bears have dominated September.
The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action.
At the low today 09/06/23, the SPX nearly retraced 50% of the 08/08/23 to 09/01/23 rally. Hourly RSI has yet to reach the oversold zone which starts at 30%. RSI and MACD had no bullish divergences. Hourly momentum implies more downside action.
The 15 – minute SPX chart zooms in on the 09/01/23 to 09/06/23 decline.
The late day rally on 09/06/23 reached a Fibonacci .236 retracement of the 09/01/23 to 09/06/23 decline. This level typically halts rallies within powerful downtrends. An SPX open on 09/07/23 below 4,468.00 implies more downside action.
The SPX 09/06/23 bottom at 4,442.38 is important support.
Four Dimension Trading 