Its possible that the S&P 500 (SPX) decline from the 01/04/22 all-time high could be part of Primary wave “4” of an Elliott – five wave impulse pattern that began in March 2009. Fibonacci time analysis of the SPX presumed Primary wave “2” that occurred in 2010 offers some fascinating clues to what could happen in 2022.
The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates Primary wave “2”.
The retracement of Primary wave “1” took the form of an Elliott wave – Single Zigzag correction, declined 17.1% and lasted 47- trading days. There’s usually Fibonacci price/time relationships between waves “two” and “four” within Elliott – motive waves.
Primary wave “2” could have a Fibonacci time relationship of equality with the presumed Primary wave “4”
The daily SPX chart 2021 to 2022 illustrates the potential time relationship.
March 16, 2022 the FOMC will make an announcement on interest rates. Frequently FOMC announcements can trigger large stock market moves.
If the SPX can reach or get near the Fibonacci price support zone on 03/16/22 it would be 49 – trading days, close to the 47 – trading days of Primary wave “2” The recent blog “Expanding Flat Could be Nearing Completion” noted that an Expanding Flat may have begun at the 11/22/21 peak. It’s 78 – trading days from 11/22/21 to 03/16/22, a ratio of 49/78 or .628 close to .618 the Fibonacci Golden Ratio.
Within the last 5 – trading days the SPX has not made any downside progress. If the SPX can not reach the 4040 to 4080 support zone by 03/17/22, there’s probably another Elliott wave count under construction.
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