The NYSE New 52 – Week Highs ($NYHGH) chart courtesy of StockCharts.com shows the internal momentum of the NYSE since the start of the secular bull market in March 2009.
The five phases roughly correspond to the five peaks within an extended nine – wave Elliott impulse wave. Phase 1 covers what I’ve labeled as Elliott Primary wave “1”. This is the bull move from March 2009 to April 2010. Phase 5 equates to what is probably Primary wave “5”. Phase 2, 3, and 4 correspond to the peaks of the three Intermediate degree waves within Primary wave “3”.
Phase 1 so far is the only phase in which the NYSE 52 – week highs came at the same time as the S&P 500 (SPX) price top. All other phases reached maximum new 52 – week highs before the SPX price tops.
Additionally, since Phase 2 each subsequent 52 – week maximum has been lower than the prior maximum. This is typical action within long-term stock bull markets. The higher a stock index climbs; fewer individual stocks are making new highs. At some point the bull market terminates due to lessening upside participation of its component parts.
The next chart zooms in on the action of new highs since April 2020.
Its possible new highs for Phase 5 could later correspond to the price peak of the SPX. In the short-term new highs fell considerably on the SPX new all-time high made February 12,2021. This implies a decline of at least one to two weeks could begin very soon.
Traders are holding 25% short non – leveraged SPX related funds from the open of trading on January 7, 2021. Continue holding short with a stop loss at an SPX move above 3970.