Gold Update – January 2021

Posts on this site forecasted a possible precious metals buying opportunity in late December 2020. Gold in particular had a bullseye date for a potential turn on 12/29/20. It was noted that if the precious metals were declining into this date it could have been a significant bottom.

The daily Gold chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the potential bottoming zone.

Gold in US dollars had Fibonacci support at 1682.22 and 1689.68.  Gold has so far not gotten anywhere near that level.  The lowest level on the last decline was at 1764.73 made on 11/30/20. The low point on 12/29/20 was 1871.88, with daily Stochastic in the upper part of the neutral zone. 

Broader seasonal patterns for Gold imply bottoms could be made in late December to early January, afterwards seasonal patterns are bullish through the remainder of January.

On 01/05/21 Gold reached a Fibonacci .618 retrace of the prior decline. Daily Stochastic and RSI have reached the overbought zone.  If Gold can breakthrough the .618 Fibonacci resistance it opens the door for a move to a new all-time high.

If the .618 resistance holds, it opens the possibility of Gold declining during one of its most bullish time periods.  If this happens it could mean  a much bigger bear move is under development. 

 Strong evidence is needed  before taking a trading/investment position. In late December 2020 evidence was lacking. Price was not near support and momentum was not oversold, therefore no long position. 

With Golds momentum now overbought and at Fibonacci resistance is now the time to short Gold?  No, seasonally this is a bullish time. Therefore, no recommendation to short Gold.

In  Baseball the batter needs to wait for the right pitch to increase their chances of getting a hit.  We need to wait for the right pitch before taking either a long or short position in Gold.