My August 25, 2020 blog focused on the angles of the secular bull markets kickoff rally March 2009 to April 2010 compared to the rally since March 23, 2020. My August 15, 2020 blog illustrated what I believe is the prime Elliott Wave count from March 2009 to August 2020.
Sometimes within Elliott Wave theory there could be two or more alternate ways to count a price structure, and still achieve the same result. An alternate count has the rally that began on March 23, 2020 as the fifth wave up of the secular bull market from March 2009. The kickoff rally from March 2009 to April 2010 could be considered the first wave up of the bull market that is still in effect as of August 2020. The reason this is important is because frequently within an Elliott five-wave motive patterns, wave one will have price/time relationships with wave five. Therefore, it’s possible to project where and when the fifth wave could terminate.
This blog will focus on the kickoff rally March 2009 to April 2010 as if it where wave one of a five wave bull market that’s still underway.
The S&P 500 (SPX) daily chart 2008 to 2010 illustrates the kickoff rally.
There are two important tops within the kickoff rally, the first is the penultimate peak made January 19, 2010 which was 319 calendar days from the major March 6, 2009 bottom. The ultimate top of the kickoff rally was on April 26, 2010 – 416 calendar days from March 6, 2009.
Adding 319 days to the current rally start date on March 23, 2020 targets February 5, 2021 as a possible major top.
Adding 416 days to March 23, 2020 calculates to May 13, 2021 as another date for a major peak.
The rally from March 2009 to January 2010 had a gain of 72.5%. The growth from March 2009 to April 2010 was 82.9%.
As of August 28, 2020, the SPX gain from March 2020 was 60%.
A growth rate of 72.5% from the March 2020 bottom projects a possible top near SPX 3780. A gain of 82.9% forecasts a possible top near SPX 4010.
My August 22nd blog illustrated that in 2021, US stocks could have an important turn. If the rally continues into 2021 it implies the turn could be a top. The data points from the 2009 to 2010 kickoff rally help us to narrow the range of where and when within 2021 the bull market could terminate.
If US stocks continue to rise, Elliott Wave price structure and Fibonacci analysis could help to narrow the time/price range further, to a few weeks and percentage points.