There are always alternate Elliott Wave counts, my prior blog illustrated a count that assumes the bull market from March 2009 is complete. This blog illustrates a count that assumes the S&P 500 (SPX) February 2020 top could be exceeded.
This weekly SPX chart is an update to a chart that appeared in my April 10, 2020 Traders.com Advantage article “The Bull is Dead, Long Live the Bull – Part Two”
In this wave count, five waves up from the March 2009 bottom are complete at the January 2018 peak. What follows is a somewhat rare Elliott Wave – Expanding Horizontal Triangle. These are corrective structures that appear only in the fourth wave position of motive waves and in the “B” wave positions of corrective patterns.
After completion of Horizontal Triangles, the primary trend resumes, which in this case is up and assumes the February 2020 SPX high could be exceeded.
On August 12, 2020, the SPX reached 3387.90 only 5.60 points below the all-time high of 3393.50. If the SPX moves above this high, it eliminates the bearish wave count that assumes the February to March crash was the first wave down of a developing bear market.
My next blog will examine the scenario of the SPX making a new all-time high, what the wave count could be, and a long-term forecast.