The 02/14/26 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 02/13/26” speculated that the U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield (TYX) may have completed a multi – year Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. TYX continued to decline, invalidating the short-term wave count. Longer – term the Horizontal Triangle is still the most likely Elliott Wave count.
The weekly TYX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action.
Elliott Wave – Horizontal Triangles are net sideways corrections that are composed of five sub- waves. Each sub – wave further divides into three waves or a combination of three waves. Horizontal Triangles only appear in the fourth wave position of motive waves, and in the “B” wave position of corrective patterns. They usually form within the boundaries of contracting trendlines. On rare occasions they form within expanding trendlines.
The main difference between this wave count and the count illustrated in the 02/14/26 blog is that the presumed Intermediate wave ( E ) appears to have formed an Elliott wave Expanding Flat. In these structures the third and final wave sub divides into five waves.
Please note that the move down from the January 2026 high to February low, 4.95 to 4.63 is a clear five wave pattern.
There are usually Fibonacci relationships among the five sub – waves.
In this case Intermediate wave ( A ) is equal to Intermediate wave ( B ).
Intermediate wave (C) is .50 of Intermediate wave ( B ).
Intermediate wave ( E ) at its widest point is .50 of Intermediate wave ( C ).
The most recent rise in TYX was probably triggered by the rise in Crude oil. The inflationary aspects of this rise could have an adverse effect on the economy for several months.
The key point to watch is the double peak at 5.15 formed in October 2023 and May 2025. A move above 5.15 could trigger a rally to at least 6.00.
Four Dimension Trading 