The 11/13/25 blog “U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle. The sharp move down during the open of the 11/14/25 SPX trading session presents an alternate wave count.
The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View updates the intraday action.
Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangles are trending patterns in which all five sub waves further divide into three waves.
Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangles are net sideways patterns in which all five sub waves further divide into three waves.
The preponderance of three wave patterns makes Ending and Horizontal triangles natural alternate waves.
One type of Horizontal Triangle is called a Running Triangle. In this structure sub wave “b” moves beyond the termination point of wave “a”. Usually the inverse ratio of wave “b” to wave “a’ is 1.236 or 1.382. The illustrated presumed Horizontal Triangle has an inverse ratio of 1.73 which is unusually large and casts some doubt as to the validity of the pattern.
If the wave count is correct the SPX could be in the early part of a post triangle thrust up. If so, the next SPX rally could be much faster than what could happen if an Ending Diagonal Triangle was in effect.
The Horizontal Triangle wave count is invalid below 6,550.78. A move below the bottom of Minute wave [c] at 6,631.44 would be a clue that something more bearish could be developing.
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