Elliott wave theory is best known as a market forecasting tool. It’s also very effective in identifying points where a forecast is wrong. S&P 500 (SPX) recent action illustrates specific points where a forecast became invalid.
The 10/26/25 blog “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 10/24/25” Noted that if the SPX moved above 6,813.85 a presumed Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle would be invalidated. On 10/27/25 SPX gapped above 6,813.85, invalidating the forecast for an important peak below that level.
The 11/01/25 blog “Bullish Pieces of an Elliott Wave Puzzle” illustrated that a presumed five – wave Elliott impulse pattern was forming after the 10/17/25 bottom.
The 30 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what happened.
There was considerable evidence that a short-term bottom was made on 10/31/25. The gap below this support on 11/03/25 was a hint there could be more downside action, which did happen.
Invalidation of the presumed bullish impulse wave from 10/17/25 occurred on 11/06/25 at SPX – 6,752.16. This was the peak of Minute wave [i]. In Elliott wave rules the fourth wave can never cross into the area of the first wave.
Does this mean a major SPX peak is in place? It’s possible, however, the next SPX 30 – minute chart illustrates a bullish wave count.
For the last few months this website has noted that an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) could be forming. EDTs are termination patterns that R.N. Elliott stated occur after a market has moved too far, too fast. The U.S. stock buying mania since 04/07/25 is a market that’s moved too far too fast. There have been several instances where an SPX – EDT could be forming, the most recent was illustrated in the 10/26/25 blog. All presumed EDTs have been invalidated.
EDTs are motive patterns in which all five sub waves further subdivide into three waves or a combination of three waves. The move up from the 10/17/25 bottom is three waves. The move down from 10/29/25 to 11/07/25 is a combination of three waves, an Elliott wave – Double Zigzag. Perhaps the movement from the 10/17/25 bottom is the first and second waves of a developing EDT. If so, the pattern could be complete in late November presumably with a new SPX all-time high.
The current EDT count is invalid if the SPX moves below 6,603.80.
Time is the most bullish factor. Statistically November is the most bullish month for U.S. stocks. The next most bullish factor comes from the momentum dimension. On 10/29/25 all three main U.S. stock indices, SPX, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones industrial Average made new all-time highs. Since January 2000 none of the major U.S. stock market peaks have occurred with all-three main indices simultaneously at all-time highs.
Be prepared for anything. A major U.S. stock market peak in late October 2025 is a low probability. Low probability does not mean no probability.
Four Dimension Trading 