The Ultimate Bearish Divergence?

There are several ways a stock index could have bearish momentum signals.  Momentum oscillators such as Stochastic or RSI can be used to identify a coming down trend  

Components of a stock index can also be used to discover potential trend changes.   Advance/decline lines of stocks within the index as well as stocks making new highs can be effective.

Perhaps the strongest bearish divergence can be when one stock index fails to confirm the new high of another stock index.

For the U.S. stock market, a very bearish signal could occur if only one of the three main U.S. stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) makes a new high unconfirmed by the other two indices.

On 08/08/25 the IXIC made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the SPX and DJI.  The daily SPX and IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action.

The DJI has been lagging the other two indices since 07/23/25, the big question on 08/08/25 was if both the SPX and IXIC could both make new highs.  On 08/08/25 IXIC was the only main U.S. stock index to make a new all- time high.

On 07/31/25 both the SPX and IXIC made new highs.  The 07/31/25 blog “Dual Peaks – 07/31/25” noted that since early 2000 four out of five of major U.S. stock market peaks occurred with only one main index making a new high.  This blog also noted that because of the dual peaks on 07/31/25 “Probabilities favor more upside action before a final peak could be made”.   

It’s possible the IXIC solo new high on 08/08/25 was the final peak.

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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