The 07/27/25 blog “Elliott Wave Pattern for the S&P 500 – April to July 2025” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) may made a Minor wave “3” peak on 07/25/25. Subsequent price action casts doubt on this presumed wave count.
The two – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the revised Elliott wave count.
Most of the time waves of the same degree are roughly in proportion to each other. For example, wave twos of a motive pattern are usually in proportion to wave fours in price and time. There could also be a Fibonacci price/time ratios between waves of the same degree.
Please note the size of the presumed Minor wave “2”. The 07/27/25 blog noted that the expected Minor wave “4” correction could last two to three trading days. After the 07/25/25 peak the SPX experienced a very small decline followed by a new rally peak on 07/29/29. The price action of this movement is very tiny compared to the presumed Minor wave “2” decline and not likely the action of a possible Minor wave “4” and Minor wave “5”.
After the 07/29/25 peak there was another decline then rallied into a peak made on 07/31/25. This action is larger than the 07/25/25 to 07/29/25 movement, however the price decline is relatively small compared to the presumed Minor wave “2”.
The decline after the 07/31/25 all-time high was large and in proportion to the presumed Minor wave “2” also note the decline held above very important support in the 6,200.00 area. This level was examined in the 07/20/25 blog “Falling Domino Setup – 07/18/25”. A break below the double bottom of 6,201.00 and 6,201.59 could trigger at least a multi-week decline.
The SPX 10 – minute chart zooms in on the action after the 07/16/25 bottom.
Most of the time does not mean all the time. Please note the presumed Sub Minuette wave “i “. Its Quantum waves [iv] and [v] are tiny compared to the prior price structure.
The SPX Elliott wave structure since the 07/25/25 peak is not clear, price action in the next one or two trading days could give us more definitive signals.
If the SPX holds above 6,201.00 and rallies marginally above the 07/31/25 peak there’s a very high probability an important peak could be made.
A decisive move below 6,201.00 implies an important peak was made on 07/31/25 and a multi-week decline could be underway.
Four Dimension Trading 