On 07/31/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) reached new all-time highs. This could be a bullish signal for U.S. stocks.
A powerful indication of a major U.S stock market peak occurs when only one of the three main U.S stock indices, SPX, IXIC and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) makes a new all – time high.
This phenomenon occurred in 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2022. Each of these years there was a major peak for the U.S stock market and the final high was marked by only one of the main indices making a new high.
The major top in 2020 just before the Covid crash was the exception as both the SPX and IXIC made their final highs on 02/19/20.
The daily SPX and IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their current action.
Both indices made peaks today, the DJI continues to lag.
Please note the narrow SPX range during the prior four trading days. The 07/27/25 blog “Elliott Wave Pattern for the S&P 500 – April to July 2025” Illustrated that Minor wave “3” up from the 04/07/25 bottom may have peaked on 07/25/25. It’s possible Minor wave “3” peaked today 07/31/25. If so, this implies at least a two-to-three-day decline followed by another SPX all-time high.
Four out of five major U.S stock peaks occurred with only one main indices making a final top. Probabilities favor more upside action before a final peak could be made.
The next blog will update the SPX short – term Elliott wave count.
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