Termination Patterns Completed

All three of the main U.S. stock indices; S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) have completed upside Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangles (EDT).  There’s a high probability these indices could soon reach the bottoms made on 05/23/25.

The one – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates its action.

The 06/08/25 blog “Important Support and Resistance Levels for U.S. Stocks” noted,

“If the SPX moves above its high on 06/06/25 at 6,016.87 the Ending Diagonal wave count is invalidated”. 

This statement should have been more specific.  The SPX did move above the 6,016.87 high.  This move only invalidated the EDT terminating at 6,016.87.  The 06/06/25 peak turned out to be only the first part of a still developing Minuette wave (v). 

What made the SPX 05/23/25 to 06/11/25 difficult to analyze as it developed are the multiple trendline throwovers.

EDT trendlines have guidelines not rules.  Usually there’s just one trendline overthrow of the trendline connecting the termination points of the third and fifth waves.  This structure has several.  Another guideline is that the fifth wave throwover tends to be brief.  Note that the SPX was above the trendline for three – hours before returning below the line.  In this case the SPX bulls were very tenacious. 

The hourly IXIC chart illustrates a more typical EDT formation. 

Note that the Minuette wave (v) throwover of the trendline is marginal and brief.

The strong and decisive break below the lower trendline on 06/13/25 is very bearish.  There’s a high probability IXIC could reach the area of the 05/23/25 bottom during the week of 06/16/25 to 06/20/25.

The DJI 15 – minute chart focus is its post 06/11/25 decline.

The DJI moved down in five waves, if complete this could be just the first wave of a larger developing move down.  Typically, there’s are Fibonacci relationships between sub waves of motive patterns.  In this case Minuette wave (iv) is equal to the widest part of Minuette wave (ii).   Minuette wave (v) is equal to the length of Minuette wave (i) through Sub Minuette wave “b”. 

If Minute wave [ i ]  is complete there could be a rally up to the 42,300 to 42,400 area. There’s also a chance for a move below the 06/13/25 bottom early in the 06/16/25 session.  If this scenario occurs it could be a very bearish day for U.S. stocks.