There are two paths the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. Late November 2023 could be an important time zone.
The 11/05/23 blog “Sentiment and Momentum Readings for U.S. Stocks – October 2023” noted that the bottom made on 10/27/23 lacked the evidence for a multi-month rally and further stated “Bulls need to be cautious, a U.S. stock rally into late 2023 could be anemic.”
The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what could be the maximum target for the bull phase that began on 10/27/23.
In this alternate wave count the SPX is in a still developing Elliott wave – Double Zigzag which could peak somewhere just beneath all – time high made in January 2022. This could be an example of Fibonacci equality where the rally after October 2022 equals January to October 2022 decline.
The peak of this rally could come in the first week of January 2024. This could be another example of a market turning on the cusp of a new year. It could also be a Fibonacci – two – years from the SPX January 2022 top.
This is an alternate wave count unless the SPX can break above its 07/27/23 peak at 4,607.07.
The daily SPX chart shows the prime – the most likely Elliott wave count.
In this count the SPX 07/27/23 to 10/27/23 decline is an Elliott Wave – Leading Diagonal Triangle – Minor wave “1”. The current rally appears to be a developing Minor wave “2”.
The upside price target is just beneath the 07/27/23 top, again a possible example of Fibonacci price equality. Estimated time zone for a top, late November/early December.
So far the rally from 10/27/23 has an impulsive look. If the post 10/27/23 rally develops into a three – wave corrective pattern below the 07/27/23 peak; it could be a very bearish signal.
Since 10/27/23 several SPX sectors have been lagging with the bulk of the gains coming from the Technology sector.
A failure to break above SPX 4,607.07 could mean the termination of a sharp and fast bear market rally.
Four Dimension Trading 